WarriorCast played tonight's 10 NBA games 10,000 times each. The biggest favorite is the Spurs, winning 67% of simulations against the Bulls (typical final SA 124–116 CHI); the closest game is Magic at Jazz, 54%–46%.
Updated Wed, Nov 11, 8:07 PM ET · predictions refresh every hour until kickoff · how to read these numbers · graded results
Upcoming NBA games: win probability and predicted score
| Game | Start | Win probability | Predicted final (typical run) | Average score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wizards @ Pacers | Wed 7:00 PM ET | IND 58% WSH 42% · IND 58% | WSH 115–119 IND | 115–118 |
| Cavaliers @ Knicks | Wed 7:00 PM ET | NY 61% CLE 39% · NY 61% | CLE 112–118 NY | 112.8–116.7 |
| Celtics @ Raptors | Wed 7:00 PM ET | BOS 54% BOS 54% · TOR 46% | BOS 115–112 TOR | 114.4–112.8 |
| Spurs @ Bulls | Wed 8:00 PM ET | SA 67% SA 67% · CHI 33% | SA 124–116 CHI | 123.5–117.2 |
| Nuggets @ Grizzlies | Wed 8:00 PM ET | DEN 55% DEN 55% · MEM 45% | DEN 123–120 MEM | 121.5–120 |
| Lakers @ Bucks | Wed 8:00 PM ET | LAL 56% LAL 56% · MIL 44% | LAL 116–113 MIL | 115.7–113.7 |
| Nets @ Pelicans | Wed 8:00 PM ET | NO 60% BKN 40% · NO 60% | BKN 114–119 NO | 114.6–118.1 |
| Magic @ Jazz | Wed 9:00 PM ET | ORL 54% ORL 54% · UTAH 46% | ORL 121–118 UTAH | 119.9–118.6 |
| Warriors @ Rockets Free today | Wed 9:30 PM ET | HOU 60% GS 40% · HOU 60% | GS 111–116 HOU | 110.8–114.4 |
| Thunder @ Trail Blazers | Wed 10:00 PM ET | OKC 56% OKC 56% · POR 44% | OKC 117–113 POR | 116–114.1 |
Predicted final = the score of the most typical of the 10,000 runs (near the median margin). Average = mean points per team across all runs; it can differ from the typical final. Click a game to watch its simulation.
Last graded NBA predictions
Favored team won 62 of 89 decided games graded so far.
| Game | Date | Favorite | Predicted | Real final | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC @ POR | Nov 10 | OKC 59% | 118–113 | 103–123 | ✗ |
| ORL @ SAC | Nov 10 | ORL 58% | 119–115 | 107–100 | ✓ |
| LAC @ PHX | Nov 10 | PHX 58% | 108–112 | 110–133 | ✓ |
| MIA @ UTAH | Nov 10 | MIA 58% | 127–123 | 115–109 | ✓ |
| BOS @ PHI | Nov 10 | BOS 62% | 114–108 | 123–101 | ✓ |
| MIL @ NY | Nov 10 | NY 77% | 107–117 | 85–117 | ✓ |
| NO @ GS | Nov 9 | GS 64% | 112–119 | 87–138 | ✓ |
| SA @ PHX | Nov 9 | SA 60% | 115–110 | 122–96 | ✓ |
| DEN @ HOU | Nov 9 | HOU 51% | 115–116 | 100–110 | ✓ |
| IND @ DAL | Nov 9 | DAL 60% | 116–121 | 122–125 | ✓ |
| MEM @ TOR | Nov 9 | TOR 67% | 116–123 | 118–102 | ✗ |
| LAL @ ATL | Nov 9 | LAL 58% | 120–116 | 124–114 | ✓ |
Questions
How are these NBA score predictions made?
Each game is simulated 10,000 times by WarriorCast. Every player is modeled from his own recent play-by-play (shots with locations, minutes and usage), with injuries and probable lineups applied. The win probability is the share of the 10,000 runs each team won; the predicted score is the final from the most typical run, and the average is the mean across all runs.
How accurate are WarriorCast NBA predictions?
Every pre-game call is archived before the game starts and graded against the real final score. So far the favored team has won 62 of 89 decided NBA games (70%). The running record by sport is on the WarriorCast results page.
Is a 70% win probability a prediction that the team will win?
No. It means the team won 7,000 of 10,000 simulated games; the other side still wins 3 times in 10. Simulations are estimates, not guarantees, and StatWarrior is an analytics tool, not a sportsbook or a tipping service.
Can I watch the simulation?
Yes. Each game links to its WarriorCast page, where the 10,000 runs land live and the most typical game replays possession by possession with a box score. One NBA game per day is free with no account; the rest are included in the $29/month StatWarrior plan.
Watch tonight's free NBA game on WarriorCast
Simulations are estimates, not guarantees. StatWarrior is an analytics tool, not a sportsbook or DFS operator, and is not affiliated with the NBA. 21+ (18+ where permitted). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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