WarriorCast played this week's 14 NFL games 10,000 times each. The biggest favorite is the Bengals, winning 82% of simulations against the Steelers (typical final PIT 20–30 CIN); the closest game is Panthers at Saints, 49%–50%.
Updated Wed, Nov 11, 8:07 PM ET · predictions refresh every hour until kickoff · how to read these numbers · graded results
Upcoming NFL games: win probability and predicted score
| Game | Start | Win probability | Predicted final (typical run) | Average score | OT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders @ Giants Free today | Thu 8:15 PM ET | WSH 58% WSH 58% · NYG 41% · tie 1% | WSH 20–17 NYG | 20.7–18.2 | 6% |
| Patriots @ Lions | Sun 9:30 AM ET | DET 60% NE 40% · DET 60% · tie 1% | NE 25–28 DET | 25.5–28.5 | 6% |
| Chiefs @ Falcons | Sun 1:00 PM ET | KC 51% KC 51% · ATL 49% · tie 1% | KC 24–23 ATL | 24.6–24.3 | 5% |
| Texans @ Browns | Sun 1:00 PM ET | HOU 67% HOU 67% · CLE 32% · tie 1% | HOU 22–16 CLE | 22.1–16.5 | 5% |
| Vikings @ Packers | Sun 1:00 PM ET | GB 61% MIN 38% · GB 61% · tie 1% | MIN 20–23 GB | 19.2–22.5 | 6% |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Sun 1:00 PM ET | JAX 57% JAX 57% · TEN 42% · tie 1% | JAX 23–20 TEN | 22.9–20.6 | 6% |
| Dolphins @ Colts | Sun 1:00 PM ET | MIA 63% MIA 63% · IND 36% · tie 1% | MIA 24–20 IND | 23.2–19.3 | 6% |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sun 1:00 PM ET | NO 50% CAR 49% · NO 50% · tie 1% | CAR 20–21 NO | 21.8–21.8 | 6% |
| Bills @ Jets | Sun 1:00 PM ET | BUF 57% BUF 57% · NYJ 42% · tie 1% | BUF 25–22 NYJ | 24.8–22.7 | 5% |
| Seahawks @ Raiders | Sun 4:05 PM ET | LV 63% SEA 36% · LV 63% · tie 1% | SEA 19–23 LV | 18.9–23.1 | 5% |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Sun 4:05 PM ET | LAR 53% LAR 53% · ARI 46% · tie 1% | LAR 23–21 ARI | 23.2–22 | 6% |
| 49ers @ Cowboys | Sun 4:25 PM ET | DAL 52% SF 48% · DAL 52% · tie 1% | SF 26–27 DAL | 26.5–26.9 | 6% |
| Steelers @ Bengals | Sun 8:20 PM ET | CIN 82% PIT 18% · CIN 82% · tie 0% | PIT 20–30 CIN | 19.2–29.9 | 3% |
| Chargers @ Ravens | Mon 8:15 PM ET | BAL 67% LAC 31% · BAL 67% · tie 1% | LAC 16–22 BAL | 16.9–23 | 5% |
Predicted final = the score of the most typical of the 10,000 runs (near the median margin). Average = mean points per team across all runs; it can differ from the typical final. Click a game to watch its simulation.
Last graded NFL predictions
Favored team won 21 of 28 decided games graded so far.
| Game | Date | Favorite | Predicted | Real final | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF @ MIN | Nov 9 | BUF 82% | 28–17 | 23–6 | ✓ |
| TB @ CHI | Nov 8 | CHI 73% | 18–25 | 24–27 | ✓ |
| GB @ NE | Nov 8 | NE 72% | 21–28 | 45–27 | ✗ |
| LV @ SF | Nov 8 | SF 73% | 21–28 | 17–38 | ✓ |
| ARI @ SEA | Nov 8 | ARI 65% | 24–20 | 3–17 | ✗ |
| HOU @ LAC | Nov 8 | HOU 57% | 23–20 | 44–22 | ✓ |
| DAL @ IND | Nov 8 | DAL 76% | 28–21 | 27–23 | ✓ |
| NYJ @ KC | Nov 8 | KC 63% | 22–26 | 12–35 | ✓ |
| DET @ MIA | Nov 8 | DET 63% | 27–23 | 19–9 | ✓ |
| CLE @ NO | Nov 8 | NO 75% | 15–22 | 22–23 OT | ✓ |
| NYG @ PHI | Nov 8 | NYG 50% | 17–16 | 19–11 | ✓ |
| LAR @ WSH | Nov 8 | LAR 68% | 27–21 | 20–13 | ✓ |
Questions
How are these NFL score predictions made?
Each game is simulated 10,000 times by WarriorCast. Every player is modeled from his own recent play-by-play (snaps, targets, carries and efficiency), with injuries and probable lineups applied. The win probability is the share of the 10,000 runs each team won; the predicted score is the final from the most typical run, and the average is the mean across all runs.
How accurate are WarriorCast NFL predictions?
Every pre-game call is archived before the game starts and graded against the real final score. So far the favored team has won 21 of 28 decided NFL games (75%). The running record by sport is on the WarriorCast results page.
Is a 70% win probability a prediction that the team will win?
No. It means the team won 7,000 of 10,000 simulated games; the other side still wins 3 times in 10. Simulations are estimates, not guarantees, and StatWarrior is an analytics tool, not a sportsbook or a tipping service.
Can I watch the simulation?
Yes. Each game links to its WarriorCast page, where the 10,000 runs land live and the most typical game replays snap by snap with a box score. One NFL game per day is free with no account; the rest are included in the $29/month StatWarrior plan.
Watch this week's free NFL game on WarriorCast
Simulations are estimates, not guarantees. StatWarrior is an analytics tool, not a sportsbook or DFS operator, and is not affiliated with the NFL. 21+ (18+ where permitted). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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