WarriorCast played tonight's 6 NHL games 10,000 times each. The biggest favorite is the Penguins, winning 59% of simulations against the Sharks (typical final PIT 3–2 SJ); the closest game is Mammoth at Golden Knights, 49%–51%.
Updated Wed, Nov 11, 8:07 PM ET · predictions refresh every hour until kickoff · how to read these numbers · graded results
Upcoming NHL games: win probability and predicted score
| Game | Start | Win probability | Predicted final (typical run) | Average score | OT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lightning @ Sabres | Wed 7:00 PM ET | TB 56% TB 56% · BUF 44% | TB 4–3 BUF | 3.5–3.1 | 22% |
| Rangers @ Flames | Wed 7:30 PM ET | NYR 52% NYR 52% · CGY 48% | NYR 3–2 CGY | 3.1–3 | 23% |
| Flyers @ Oilers | Wed 9:00 PM ET | EDM 53% PHI 47% · EDM 53% | PHI 3–4 EDM | 3.1–3.3 | 22% |
| Mammoth @ Golden Knights Free today | Wed 9:30 PM ET | VGK 51% UTA 49% · VGK 51% | UTA 3–4 VGK | 3.2–3.2 | 22% |
| Predators @ Ducks | Wed 10:00 PM ET | ANA 52% NSH 48% · ANA 52% | NSH 2–3 ANA | 3.3–3.4 | 21% |
| Penguins @ Sharks | Wed 10:00 PM ET | PIT 59% PIT 59% · SJ 41% | PIT 3–2 SJ | 3.5–3 | 21% |
Predicted final = the score of the most typical of the 10,000 runs (near the median margin). Average = mean goals per team across all runs; it can differ from the typical final. Click a game to watch its simulation.
Last graded NHL predictions
Favored team won 48 of 79 decided games graded so far.
| Game | Date | Favorite | Predicted | Real final | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH @ LA | Nov 10 | LA 54% | 3–4 | 3–0 | ✗ |
| DET @ STL | Nov 10 | STL 59% | 2–3 | 2–3 | ✓ |
| FLA @ CBJ | Nov 10 | FLA 55% | 4–3 | 4–1 | ✓ |
| COL @ TOR | Nov 10 | COL 66% | 4–3 | 6–3 | ✓ |
| MIN @ MTL | Nov 10 | MTL 51% | 2–3 | 2–1 OT | ✗ |
| WSH @ OTT | Nov 10 | WSH 52% | 4–3 | 3–2 OT | ✓ |
| NJ @ WPG | Nov 10 | NJ 59% | 4–3 | 2–4 | ✗ |
| NYI @ SJ | Nov 9 | NYI 60% | 4–3 | 2–3 OT | ✗ |
| PHI @ VAN | Nov 9 | PHI 61% | 4–3 | 3–1 | ✓ |
| NYR @ EDM | Nov 9 | EDM 52% | 2–3 | 1–3 | ✓ |
| PIT @ ANA | Nov 8 | PIT 51% | 4–3 | 2–5 | ✗ |
| NJ @ TOR | Nov 8 | NJ 59% | 4–3 | 4–0 | ✓ |
Questions
How are these NHL score predictions made?
Each game is simulated 10,000 times by WarriorCast. Every player is modeled from his own recent play-by-play (shifts, shot locations and goaltending), with injuries and probable lineups applied. The win probability is the share of the 10,000 runs each team won; the predicted score is the final from the most typical run, and the average is the mean across all runs.
How accurate are WarriorCast NHL predictions?
Every pre-game call is archived before the game starts and graded against the real final score. So far the favored team has won 48 of 79 decided NHL games (61%). The running record by sport is on the WarriorCast results page.
Is a 70% win probability a prediction that the team will win?
No. It means the team won 7,000 of 10,000 simulated games; the other side still wins 3 times in 10. Simulations are estimates, not guarantees, and StatWarrior is an analytics tool, not a sportsbook or a tipping service.
Can I watch the simulation?
Yes. Each game links to its WarriorCast page, where the 10,000 runs land live and the most typical game replays shift by shift with a box score. One NHL game per day is free with no account; the rest are included in the $29/month StatWarrior plan.
Watch tonight's free NHL game on WarriorCast
Simulations are estimates, not guarantees. StatWarrior is an analytics tool, not a sportsbook or DFS operator, and is not affiliated with the NHL. 21+ (18+ where permitted). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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