NBA, NFL & NHL Game Simulator

Use game simulations alongside DFS and betting research

A game simulation explores possible scores and player outcomes for one matchup. WarriorCast runs each supported NBA, NFL or NHL game 10,000 times, then shows model win probabilities, simulated player ranges and a typical replay. The replay is one scenario; the probabilities summarize all the runs.

The DraftKings and FanDuel DFS optimizer builds lineups under each site's rules. WarriorSim contest simulations compare lineup sets against a modeled field and payout assumptions. For individual-player lines and game markets, explore player prop research and sports betting analytics. Each tool answers a different question, and every estimate depends on its data and assumptions.

How to read the game simulator's results

Choose NBA, NFL or NHL, then select a matchup. The Free today label identifies an available free game. For the NBA game simulator, the basketball replay follows one run while the results panel summarizes all 10,000. The same distinction applies to the NFL and NHL simulations.

What the WarriorCast numbers mean
Result	How to interpret it
Team win percentage	The share of simulated runs won by that team, with the number of wins beside it.
Average score and total	Each team's mean score across the runs; the average total adds those two means. These averages can differ from the replay's final score.
Typical final	The score of a selected simulated game near the median winning margin and median team scores.
80% of runs	The 10th–90th percentile range of final winning margins, shown as a team winning by a number of points or goals. This range describes margins, not total scores.
Player DK points and range	Average simulated DraftKings points, with the player's 10th–90th percentile range beneath. Use the selected operator's scoring when moving to a DFS lineup.
Injury report rebuild time	The timestamp under Who's in, who's out shows when those inputs were rebuilt. Check it alongside the listed player statuses.

Hypothetical example: if a team wins 6,200 of 10,000 simulations, its simulated win percentage is 62%. That describes the model's runs for that matchup; it is not a 62% historical accuracy claim or a guaranteed outcome. The replay may show a close final even when the results panel also contains wide winning and losing margins.

Use the Runs, Players, Game, Box and Verdict chapters to move through the simulation. For observed performance, the WarriorCast results page compares archived pre-game estimates with completed games.

How WarriorCast works

Every player is built from his own real play-by-play. For everyone on the rosters, WarriorCast reads every game he played this season and last season, for any team.

NBA: possession by possession

Minutes and rotations. Expected minutes come from this season's rotation, blended with last season while the season is young. Players listed out don't play; day-to-day players do. Stints rotate like a real bench, the regulars close a close game, and a blowout empties the bench.
Every trip down the floor. One of the five players on the floor uses the possession, weighted by how often he really shoots, gets to the line or turns it over. A shot comes from one of his real shot locations; whether it goes in depends on his own percentage from that zone (rim, paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break), adjusted for tonight's defense and home court. Rebounds, assists, blocks, steals, and-ones, late-game fouling and overtime follow.

NFL: snap by snap

Every snap. Down, distance, field position, the score and the clock decide run or pass, using league tendencies shifted to each team's own neutral pass rate. Fourth downs follow real go-for-it, field-goal and punt rates.
The quarterback and his targets. The starter's completion and interception rates on short and deep throws, his sacks and scrambles; each receiver's share of targets, how often he's thrown deep, his catch rate, and his own yards per catch. Runs come from each back's real carries. Field goals come from the kicker's rate by distance.
The game. Kickoffs, punts, penalties, turnovers, the two-minute warning, hurry-up offense, milking a lead, timeouts, kneel-downs, two-point tries and overtime.

NHL: shift by shift

Lines, pairs and special teams. Forward lines and defense pairs come from each player's real even-strength ice time; power-play and penalty-kill units from his PP and PK time. Lines change every shift, and the top units play the most. In goal: ESPN's probable starter.
Every shot attempt. Each skater on the ice shoots at his own real rate for that situation (even strength, power play, shorthanded). The attempt comes from one of his real spots on the ice, with his shot type. Whether it's blocked, misses or scores depends on how often attempts from that spot do across the league, his own finishing, and the goalie's save percentage.
The game. Penalties and power plays (5-on-4, 5-on-3, 4-on-4), a power-play goal ending the minor, score effects, the trailing team pulling its goalie, empty-net goals, 3-on-3 overtime and the shootout.

10,000 times. Each game runs 10,000 times with fixed seeds, so everyone sees the same results. Win probability during the game comes from those runs. The game you watch is the most typical one: the median margin, closest to the median score.

Simulated, not a prediction. Results depend on the data and assumptions above; real games include news, matchups and variance the model doesn't know about. StatWarrior is a research tool, not a sportsbook.

Questions

Where does the data come from?

Public play-by-play and box scores (ESPN) for this season and last season. Each player's shot chart uses his real attempts (for hockey, every shot attempt's spot on the ice), with this season counted extra so a role change shows up fast.

How often is it updated?

Every hour. Injury news changes who plays and everyone else's role, and the simulations are rebuilt with it.

What do I get for free?

One WarriorCast a day: the marquee game. Every other NBA, NFL and NHL game is included with a StatWarrior subscription, along with the optimizer, projections, WarriorSim™ and props.

How accurate is it?

Every game's pre-game prediction is kept and graded against the real final score once the game ends. See the WarriorCast results page for the running win rate and average margin and total error, by sport.

Why is the game I watch not the most likely winner by more?

The typical game is the one in the middle of all 10,000: half of the runs end with a bigger margin one way or the other. The split bar shows how often each team won.

Can I share it?

Yes. Record a 9:16 clip of the full simulation with one tap and post it anywhere. The link to a game is shareable too.

Where are the score predictions for every game?

On the score-prediction pages, updated hourly until kickoff: NFL score predictions, NBA score predictions and NHL score predictions. Each lists every upcoming game's win probability, typical and average final, plus the last graded games.

Writing about WarriorCast?

The WarriorCast media kit has unedited screenshots, a two-minute walkthrough, the facts we stand behind and reuse terms. Questions: Contact@StatWarrior.com.

Is this the same as WarriorSim™?

No. WarriorSim simulates DFS contests and lineup sets. WarriorCast simulates a single game, possession by possession, snap by snap or shift by shift. Both are part of StatWarrior.

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Every game, played 10,000 times.

Sim box score

Who's in, who's out